New year Greetings - 2010

Comparison since Januray 2008 - high

ABirla Nova - Break out !!!

A.Birla Nova - from the charts it's clear trades above 55 DEMA and breakout of the downward sloping line(upper line of Triangle) with Volume.



ABirla Nova, if can close above 940 in coming days can target high 1050 made 8th sept. with immediate support at 860.

Nifty update with chart

Nifty trading around the 55 DEMA 4975. Now  from the weekly chart it is clear that Nifty holds the support at 4936 -61.8% retracement of previous swing and once Nifty closes below the 4860 - 50% retracement , it would lose  the upside momentum.  Breaking of the upward moving wedge(bearish signal) could signal panic selling for wedge target around 3920 levels with  in-between target of 4363 and 4140.
                                                       Now a close above 5092 would keep the uptrend intact for target of 5247 and 5330.

Gold update with weekly chart - 2

Gold has closed below $ 1100 since first week of November, a weekly close below $ 1100 would terminate the on-going bullish run. Now immediate supports are $ 1065 - 1035 - 990 as said in the previous update.

From the chart it clear that Gold is losing the momentum , with MACD on the verge of crossover and RSI dipping lower.

On the higher side it would face resistance at $1118 - 140 - 180 as resistance and move above 1180 would indicate the bullish run to continue.

A close below $ 990 would indicate the end of the uptrend, and start of correction towards $ 865 to 680. So, Long Term Investors, can buy($ 1030 to 1065) on any dips with stop loss $ 990.

Review of Important Nifty stocks.

NIFTY

On Weekly basis, Closing below 4940 then Nifty can target 4705 and 4575 with minor support at 4800. 


Now for the Uptrend to be intact Nifty has to close above 5080 for higher target 5237 / 5308 / 5511.

Reliance

Reliance 200 EMA @ 990, very important level to watch in near term. Immediate range is 980 to 1065. 


980 levels should offer some support for Reliance in coming week, otherwise can test 900 levels.

ICICI Bank

Below 850, the stock is weak to test the 780 to 745 levels, as mentioned in the previous review. 
Any bounce back from this oversold region could be utilized for selling the stocks near 836 to 845 levels with SL 856, or can buy around 782 levels with closing stop loss 780. 
200 DEMA is at 750 that could offer some support in near term.

DLF

DLF is trading below 200 DEMA, one of the weakest stocks in the Nifty 50 stocks. A close above 378 could change the bearish trend or any bounce back can be used to sell the stock with stop loss 378 for target 336 /320.

TATA STEEL

Tata steel is finding good support at 544 range, now it has to close above 570 levels for maintaining the uptrend to target 606 / 625 levels or could test 522 to 502 range once closes below 544.

BHEL

BHEL, if unable to cross 2365 levels then can test 2266/ 2222 levels. Buy on dips around Stop loss 2222.

INFOSYS

Strongest stock in Nifty 50, utilize any dips to buy this stock with stop loss 2325.

BHARTI ARTL

Bharti Artl, bounced from its low of 270’s to 348 levels, now the stock is consolidating around the 200 DEMA. If Bharti Artl consolidates around 310 to 320 levels, it can move towards 370 levels. Closing below 300 levels can take the stock to 254 to 228 levels. So, near term range for the stock is 300 to 330.

REL. INFRA

A weekly close below 1025 would signal weakness in this stock. Rel. Infra is making lower high, with descending triangle pattern, indicating lack of strength in the stock. A weekly close below 1025 would indicate further weakness for target 860 to 710. A close above 1190 would terminate the weakness in the stock.

Join through our Yahoo messenger id markettodaymc@yahoo.in for free trial calls.

ABAN

Crude - views

Crude has taken the support at 200 EMA but broken the rising wedge, now this formation can take the Crude to $60 to 48 levels , if the 200 EMA support doesn't hold.

Any bounce back can be used to short crude with Stop loss $ 76( test of 55 EMA) for above given target.

Gold update

Gold after breath-taking run in short span of time , has even more reversed sharply more than run-up(time-wise). We have clearly indicated that the run-up could terminate sooner and better to book the longs and avoid fresh longs, in the previous post. (https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyECMngjETWFGd-UUmrotnoo3qEj1jjW6dJ7Ha0avS4ZldBmcILUXCfySrsNTsNapZGlv26OBNknBDGyOUGBvnVYS0Fa8JSeMmnwTwxgHHjn0bt5iUkOFls-ChoWAuf1J4_Q3vXmecT8AN/s1600/gold.PNG)

Now, Gold 55 EMA is around $ 1100 levels and trend line support is around this region, with RSI in oversold region, Gold can consolidate before next move.

If Gold fails to hold $1100 then immediate support levels are $ 1065 - 1035 and 990.

A bounce back from $ 1100 can keep the hopes of the current bull trend intact, for target $ 1250 to 1300, anyway trading above $ 1180 would keep intact the given target.

A close below $ 990 would indicate the end of the uptrend, and start of correction towards $ 865 to 680. So, Long Term Investors, can buy($ 1030 to 1065) on any dips with stop loss $ 990.

Pivot levels for coming week - 14 to 18th December

click on the table for enlarged vision.

Performers and Under Performer for this week

Trading ideas for this week form 7th Dec to 11th Dec 2009.

Nifty

Nifty range is 4940 to 5150, closing above or below, either side indicate trend.Closing above 5150 – Nifty can target 5280 and 5410.Closing below 4940 then Nifty can 4705 and 4575 with minor support at 4800

Reliance

Immediate range is 1040 to 1100 (closing basis) and intraday basis breakout above target 1149 and 1187.Below 1065 can test 1040 – weak only if closes below 1040.

Tata steel

Support at 563 –554 -545 can buy on dips with stop loss 545. Weak only if closes below 545. Close above 585 then can target 610-637 -711.

ICICI Bank

Support $ 864 – 851- close below 850 then can test 782. Now close above 887 would indicate bullishness up to 931 to 948.

DLF

Range 350 to 390. Closing above 390 can take 415 to 440 on upper side. Below 350 then 330 – 306 can be tested.

BHEL

2150 to 2280 is the near term range- break of either side could indicate near term trend.Buy on dips with stop loss 2150 and sell on bounce with stop loss 2280- should be the near term strategy.

INFOSYS

2325 to 2440 is the range, buy on dips could be profitable- one of the strongest stocks among the Nifty 50.

BHARTI ARTL

Bharti artl bouncing from lower level of 275 can target 325. A close above can take the stock to 340 to 357 levels. And close below 300 would end the uptrend.

REL. INFRA

Range 1082 to 1032, a close below either side could indicate the next trend. Above 1080 can take the stock to 1120 to 1155 and break of 1032 – can test 990 to 962.

Stocks that are indicating bullish for coming days

Manaksia

Fortis health care

GMR Infra

Hindustan Petroleum

LYKA labs

TV- 18

Gold update with weekly chart - 1

Gold hitting higher high and last month move has been vertical , with 2 gaps, already. Support at $ 1150 - 1130 - 1100 closing below $ 1100 would arrest the uptrend. Target are valid as given earlier $ 1250 (161.8 % retrace ment ) and now I have added 2 more target of inverse shoulder. Anyhow longs can start book profit partially on every rise.

MUNJAL AUTO

Munjal Auto form Auto sector could be next mover, track this stock with immediate support at 97 for target 108 - 123 - 139.

Performers and Under Performer compared with Nifty

Nifty Fibonacci extension

Let see whether this works for Monday

Lessons I Have Learned During 40 Years as a Trader - GERALD APPEL

               These are hardly original, which makes them no less valid. As you might notice, many, if not most, are associated not so much with the stock market as with our own attitudes as traders. Unfortunately, most investors pay for what they learn over the years in some way. I have certainly paid in bad experiences for much of what I have learned. Maybe you can save yourself some money by considering the price of this book your payment and go directly on from there. Here they are, in no particular order:

               The news media, including the stock market TV channels, tend to be the last to know and almost always tend to follow stock market trends rather than to lead them. As a general rule, a good time to buy stocks is when the popular magazines and front pages of major newspapers are featuring stories dealing

with bear markets and investor doom. In a similar vein, stock market newsletters and advisory services have not had the very best of records in terms of market forecasting. The greater “gurus” have often tended not to be more correct than others.

              There might be many benefits in attending lectures, meetings, and technical classes regarding trading tactics and investing, but it is probably best to operate alone in making and implementing actual trading decisions and to assume, within yourself, the responsibilities of poor trades and the credit for good ones.

               Similarly, it is best to keep your results and performance private. The temptation to boast of your successes and fears of reporting failures will almost certainly not help your performance.

               Human nature operates against good trading practices. We enjoy taking profits and hate taking losses. As a result, traders often tend to close out their strongest positions too early (locking up the profit) and maintain their weakest positions for too long (“not a loss until I take it”) instead of letting their strongest positions run and closing out their weakest with small losses. Keep in mind that even the best timing models tend to be profitable only a certain percentage of the time, but their winning trades are much larger, on average, than their losing trades.

                The name of the game is to make a good (but not unreasonably good) return for your time and capital, not to feel “smart.” I know many, many people who overextended their welcome in the stock market as 1999 moved into 2000, not because they failed to recognize the dangers of the stock market, but because they were having such a good time feeling smart during the bull market that they hated to leave the party.

                Don’t confuse rising stock prices with being a financial genius.

                For most people, in-and-out trading will not be as profitable as well-considered

intermediate-term trading. It is not easy to overcome the additional costs in transaction expenses and bid-ask spreads involved in day trading and very short-term trading, although there are, no doubt, successful traders in this regard.

                It is better to miss a profit than to take a loss. Go back to Chapter 1 regarding this subject.

                For the most part, it is probably best not to operate at the market opening. There are pauses during the day, usually at around 10:30 a.m. Eastern time and around 1:15 to 1:30 p.m., when the stock market is quieter and when you can act with relative calm.

                Do not enter into an invested position without an exit plan.

                It is much better to trade with no more capital than you can comfortably risk.

               One successful trade makes us feel good. Two successful trades in a row make us feel pretty smart. Three consecutive successful trades makes us feel like a genius. That’s when they get us....

                Make note of your losing transactions. Have you violated some basic rules of trading or investing because of some emotional reason? There will be losses. Not every losing trade is a mistake. The stock market, at best, is a game of probabilities.

                Finally, many techniques and tools that are designed to help you identify market conditions that most favor profitable investing. There is no need to be invested in the stock market at all times. If matters

appear unclear or if you are less certain than usual (there’s no such thing as certainty regarding stocks), be free to simply stand aside until matters clarify.

                 form the book --------Technical Analysis Power Tools for Active Investors by Gerald Appel

Intraday update for 20 th November 2009.

Nifty spot - 4989
Support 4965 /4947 /4930 /4912
Resistance 4999 /5017 /5034 /5052

Buy(in first session only) if opens lows with stop loss 4930 target 4965 /4981 /4999 /5017, avoid later in the day.
Sell Nifty on rise, for Intra day,with stop loss 5035, target 4999 /4981 /4965/4947 ,

Hold for positional 
Sell Nifty on rise stop loss 5115, Target 4875/ 4810 /4745 - till expiry
Buy 4900 PE stop loss full premium, target 100 to 150.

TATA STEEL(537.15)
Sell on rise 541/ 544 stop loss 550 target 537 /532 if trades below 532 then target 517 /506 in coming days.

19th Intraday update

Nifty(5054.70)

Resistance 5078 /5095 /5113
Support 5026 /5008 /4990.

Trend - consolidation

Reliance(2100)

Resistance 2117/ 2128/ 2410

Support 2093/ 2081 /2070

Trend - down.

Kalindee Rail Nirman

Triangle breakout with volume.

Rsi also confirms breakout.

MACD In positive zone.

S.T Moving Average crossover.

Can target 167 to 184 above 160.

Near term support @ 147 on closing basis.

Copper update - Weekly chart

Copper after consolidating has given a breakout with near term support around $ 290 and can target $ 320 to 335. MACD is in positive zone and the two upward trend line could act as support for long term and intermediate term

Silver Weekly chart

Gold update with weekly chart

Gold has been making higher high and higher lows for past few months.

From the chart is clearly visible its trading above the inverted Head and shoulder pattern and the target for this pattern is around $ 1260(closing basis) to 1330.

Now with MACD is indicating negative divergence with price hitting new high and MACD is lagging behind and RSI too indicating overbought, it better to enter on dips with stop loss $ 980 for long term. Longs can move the stop loss to $ 1100 to protect the profits and can re-enter around the support levels given in the charts.

If Gold closes above$ 1130 for consecutive days, in next few days, then there can be huge short covering and last phase of panic buying with target of $ 1250 in short term.

Reliance with weekly chart

Reliance near term trend with chart

Nifty 50 stocks performance

Performance of Bse All Sector Indices from Recent high to Friday closing

Update of 6th November 2009

Stop loss(4936) Triggered for Positional trader as given,
exit all short position and wait in the sideline till a clear trend is emerged -
since we feel market can be volatile on both the side until next trend is clear known.

6th November 2009 - update

Nifty Spot- 4765.55

Support 4742 /4724 /4707 /4690 /4673
Resistance 4799 /4816 /4833 /4851 /4868.

Buy Nifty only if opens low @ 4724 best @ 4690,
Stop loss 4673 or 4657,
Target 4784/ 4799 /4816 /4833 /4851.

If opens high sell @ 4840, Best sell @ 4860 stop loss 4868,
Target 4780/4742 /4724 /4707.

Positional traders,
Buy 4700 pe or 4800 pe or even 4600 pe with stop loss 4936,
Target later if stop loss not triggered.

Best to exit all long positions once and re- enter, if Nifty closes above 4950 to 5000.

Nifty with Gann Fan line - Support levels

Nifty update with chart

Nifty for this week closed more than 5.75% in negative compared to the previous week. The weekly chart indicates, Nifty has broken the wedge with good volumes, targeting the 4350 levels. Immediate support zone is around the 4636 to 4580 level.
Nifty trading below 13 WEMA (4797) and 26 WEMA is around 4512.
RSI – as clear from the chart the, is at crucial support levels (yellow Line), break would signal stall in uptrend and could test 4350 levels.
MACD has turned negative and giving weak signal.
Nifty levels for this week
Support 4685 4617 4550 4482
Resistance 4738 4808 4878 4947

Nifty daily chart indicate that the downward trend line should act as immediate resistance levels, it’s around 4865 levels.
Moving Averages – Nifty trading below 21 DEMA-4935 and 55 DEMA 4823, indicating the uptrend losing the strength and weakness to persists for the days to come unless closes above the sloping trend line.
RSI is in oversold zone.
MACD is indicating weakness in the Nifty.

The strategy for this week,
Buy Nifty 4700 Ce at dips with stop loss 4630 on closing basis for a bounce back up to 4800 to 4860 levels.
Closing below 4580 would indicate the termination of the uptrend and more weakness would persist and could test the immediate previous low 4350.

Dow Jones - Daily chart

Dow Jones (US) has broken the crucial trendline and nearing the 55 Ema support levels.

Is this end of the Ongoing bullish trend , may be,this week picture might be clear- where the global markets are headed .

Sundram Fastner - 52 week high

Sundaram Fastners - something really cooking, moving against the general trend with volume.

30th October 2009- Friday' update.

Nifty spot - 4750

Support 4722 / 4705 / 4688 / 4671

Resistance 4772 / 4790 / 4807 / 4824.

Range 4705 to 4807

Strategy Buy on dips with SL 4688 Tar 4755 / 4772 / 4790.

If opens high Sell @ 4790 safe Sell @ 4807 SL 4824 or 4830 Tar 4772 / 4755 / 4738.

For Intraday,

Buy Sun Pharma (1403) best buy @ 1387 Safe @ 1378 with SL 1360 Target 1420 /1429 / 1439

29th October 2009- Thurday's update.

Nifty spot - 4826

Support 4797 /4780 /4763 / 4746

Resistance 4853 /4871 /4888 /4906.

Range 4780 to 4871.

Sell Nifty (spot) if fails to hold 4853 with SL 4871, Tar 4815 /4797 /4780 /4763.

Wipro(626)- Buy with SL 610 , safe buy @ 623 & best @ 617 Tar 628 /634 /640.

Nifty update with chart for 26th to 30th October -2009

Nifty for the week ended minus 2.80 % compared to previous week, but with low volumes, may be due to profit booking at higher levels. Nifty is now nearing the crucial support levels of 4900, RSI indicating oversold in the daily chart and ADX(23 ) is dipping below 30 levels - ADX declines below 30 is interpreted as a consolidation after a trending move - If Bearish patterns develop and breakdown, look for ADX to move higher, this time indicating a trending move on the downside. 

Trading strategy for this week should be – Buy Nifty with closing stop loss 4880 for a target of 5040 to 5110 levels or buy 5000 ce around 4900 to 4940 with closing stop loss 4880 for target 5040 to 5110.

Nifty Range for this week   - 4880 to 5182.

Support	4950	4880	4810	4740
Resistance	5040	5110	5182	5254

23rd October 2099 - Friday - Intraday update

Nifty spot Support 4975 /4958 /4940 /4923 Res 5003 /5021 /5039 /5056.

Today' Range 4940 to 5039.

Trend - Weak after Bullish opening.

Sell on rise with stop loss 5044 for target 4975 to 4940.

Sell DLF(449) on rise(456 to 461) with stop loss 466 target 443 /438 /432.

Short term trading ideas -1

Stocks	L T P	S L	Tar
Neyveli Lignite	140.25	126	158 / 167
Triveni	117.45	104	129 / 143
Sil	31.45	24	40 / 48
Mahindra Forging	78.80	66	97/104

Last week Movers and Draggers

Bse all sector index top 3 sector's were Metal - Bank and Real estate and all the index ended in positive territory.

Nse Midcap top movers above 10% in last week .

Nifty 50 Gainers and loser for the past week.

Wish you all Happy and Prosperous Diwali !!!

Important Nifty 50 - Stock updates -3

Tata steel hit the 52 week high this week but with low volume compared to previous up moves – now longs are advisable only on closing above 550 levels and stop loss for the longs are around 485 closing basis. Trend reversal seen on closing below 485 and it happens to be the long term trend line support too. TATA STEEL this week,

Support 522 – 499 – 477 
Resistance 550 – 562 - 574 

State bank of India correct with volume and addition of open interest – indicating profit booking at higher levels, now the crucial support levels is around 1950 levels – break would indicate the halt to the current bullish scenario. State Bank of India this week,

Support 2031 – 1986 – 1942
Resistance 2092 – 2138 – 2185

DLF is consolidating in the range of 490 to 540, other details are enclosed in the chart – this week,

Support 405 / 395 /385

Resistance 421 / 432 / 442

In the chart there is mistake – read as breaking of 390(not 490) would terminate the uptrend.